Technical Document

Introduction

Vigil addresses a practical constraint in higher-timeframe (HTF) structural trading: the number of markets a single trader can scan with consistency is limited by time, fatigue, and selection bias. Vigil automates the scanning and ranking process across a large universe while keeping its reasoning transparent.

Vigil's objective is to identify where setups are forming under a specific structural framework. It does not claim certainty, does not predict outcomes, and does not prescribe execution. The current build focuses entirely on cryptocurrency, where the combination of broad listing depth, high cycle variance, and round-the-clock data makes the framework most useful in practice.

Framework: The 4-year sequential cycle

Vigil is based on a sequential framework in which markets tend to move through repeating delivery phases over multi-year horizons:

• Accumulation (A), range-bound, mean-reverting behavior. Structural base building.
• Manipulation (M), liquidity sweeps and false moves that set up the eventual resolution.
• Distribution (D), sustained directional follow-through (delivery).
• Reset (X), transition that closes the cycle and sets conditions for renewal.

The framework is widely understood in HTF trading communities. The operational challenge is applying it consistently across hundreds of instruments without discretionary drift. Vigil's core contribution is enforcing the framework and its sequencing rules at scale.

Structural insights

Per-instrument cycles dominate macro synchronization

Most instruments operate within their own multi-year cycle and may only loosely synchronize with broader market regimes. Within crypto, an L1 such as BTC can be in Distribution while a smaller-cap altcoin is still mid-Accumulation, or vice versa. Vigil therefore reads each instrument independently rather than projecting a single macro state across all markets, while still using BTC's own cycle position as the dominant correlation reference for the rest of the crypto universe.

Accumulation vs. Active is the primary structural boundary

The most important structural distinction is whether a period is:

• Accumulation (passive, range-bound, low commitment), or
• Active (Manipulation + Distribution, liquidity interaction and directional intent)

Manipulation and Distribution can look similar at the per-period pattern level. Vigil prioritises cycle position (sequence) as the higher-order context for distinguishing them.

Recent confirmed structure anchors the read

In sequential cycle detection, the most recent confidently-classified period carries the most weight in determining current cycle position. Vigil's detection logic anchors on the most recent high-confidence reading and derives the surrounding sequence from that anchor, rather than averaging signals across an entire historical window. This reflects how serious cycle traders read structure: confirmed recent action sets the reference, older periods inform context.

System architecture

Vigil operates in two layers, with the weekly Friday broadcast assembling outputs from both.

Weekly screener (Layer 1)

Schedule: Every Friday at 22:00 CET, Vigil runs a complete scan across the universe of the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, refreshed at scan time from CoinGecko.

Per instrument, the system:

1. Reads multi-year price history
2. Classifies each prior year's structure as A, M, D, or X
3. Enforces sequential law across the historical chain
4. Maps remaining liquidity (highs taken vs. remaining, lows taken vs. remaining)
5. Measures correlation against BTC and the broader macro state
6. Gates out instruments that follow the prevailing macro direction (in a bear macro, instruments that follow BTC drop to score 0 / tier NONE in L1; the inverse rule applies in a bull macro)
7. Scores eligible setups across cycle position, structure, liquidity, range location, and detection confidence
8. Classifies results into one of four tiers: HIGH (red), MEDIUM (yellow), WATCHING (green), or NONE (filtered out by the eligibility gate or below score threshold)

The L1 eligibility gate is a deliberate filter: an instrument that simply tracks BTC's macro direction has no independent structural signal under the framework. Filtering it from the scoring loop keeps the pointed list focused on instruments with their own structural read.

A key design choice is transparency. The score is not a black box. Each contributing factor (correlation read, cycle position, liquidity picture, range position, structural confidence) is presented per instrument so the subscriber can see why a setup landed where it did.

On-demand deep analysis (Layer 2)

Layer 2 can be triggered for any instrument at any time to produce a hierarchical read on quarterly and monthly timeframes. Unlike Layer 1, Layer 2 runs on every analysed instrument regardless of L1 tier, since structural Q+M reads remain informative even when correlation rules out an L1 score.

Question answered: Is the setup active now, and what does the timing signature imply within the framework?

Two-stage detection:

• Stage 1, Accumulation vs. Active: range behaviour, close position relative to the period's range, liquidity sweep classification, and reversal patterns combine into a holistic read. Sweep-with-rejection and sweep-with-continuation are explicitly distinguished, since they carry opposite structural meaning.
• Stage 2, if Active, classify M vs. D: driven primarily by sequential law (cycle position), reflecting that M/D separation is context-dependent. Signals serve as tiebreakers when sequence is ambiguous.

Verdict matrix: Layer 2 produces a 9-cell verdict combining quarterly and monthly labels into one of four conviction states:

• ⚡ Peak Conviction
• 🟢 High Potential
• 📍 Transition Forming
• ⏳ Not Aligned

Sweep-phase modifiers are surfaced as context underneath the headline, not as tier overrides. The Q x M matrix determines the icon directly. This is intentional: the icon describes the structural setup, the sweep notes describe how confirmed the resolution is.

A second tier, the structural conviction line, sits below the matrix verdict and is driven entirely by liquidity geometry: asymmetry between nearest buyside and sellside, distance of the closer target, presence of cleared sides, and a bonus when the closer level comes from the quarterly (higher) timeframe. It reuses the ⚡ / 🟢 / 📍 icons but is directionless by construction, with a "favors long" or "favors short" tag appended based on which side is closer or cleared.

Friday broadcast format

The Friday push is delivered in three messages, in order:

1. Intro. A short framing message goes out just before the scan begins, covering the current macro state, BTC dominance, and the year's cycle position. This sets the structural context for everything that follows.

2. Friday Recap. Compact week-over-week read:

• Lead line, the single most important development of the week (new fresh entrants to ⚡, major tier rotations, or new inverse entrants on the L1 watch)
• Tier transitions: who entered ⚡ / 🟢 / 📍 / ⏳ this week, who dropped out
• BTC dominance with week-over-week delta and a one-line interpretation of what the move implies for alts
• BTC vs ETH alignment, whether the two majors are reading the same Q+M setup
• Inverse watch, any new structural divergences against BTC

3. L1 x L2 Alignment Digest. The intersection set: instruments where the yearly cycle score (L1) and the quarterly + monthly structure (L2) both fire. Grouped by combination:

• 🔴 HIGH + Peak Conviction ⚡
• 🔴 HIGH + High Potential 🟢
• 🟡 MEDIUM + Peak Conviction ⚡
• 🟡 MEDIUM + High Potential 🟢

This is the strongest subset the framework can produce, the cases where both layers independently agree.

Coverage and outputs

Asset class

The current product is fully focused on cryptocurrency: the top 300 instruments by market capitalisation, refreshed live from CoinGecko at the start of each scan. Stablecoins, treasuries, and other non-structural categories are filtered out at fetch time. Instruments with insufficient history for a meaningful cycle read are skipped automatically.

Per-instrument analytical surface

Vigil evaluates:

• Cycle position (current year phase, prior year confirmations)
• Multi-year liquidity map (prior highs and lows, remaining vs. taken)
• Range position within the multi-year cycle
• Correlation with BTC across two timeframes (2-year weekly, 3-month daily) for both direction and timeframe agreement
• Structural detection confidence
• Liquidity geometry on the quarterly and monthly horizons (asymmetry, realistic targets, cleared sides, source timeframe)

Macro references

NQ, ES, and YM are surfaced in the intro broadcast as static cultural anchors for traders who follow traditional markets in parallel. They are display-only labels and do not flow through the scan or scoring path.

Per-instrument commands

Layer 1 and Layer 2 can be pulled on demand for any instrument in the universe via Telegram:

• /l1 TICKER produces the yearly cycle analysis with cycle history, liquidity map, range read, correlation context, and structural verdict
• /l2 TICKER produces the quarterly and monthly deep dive, including the matrix verdict, the structural conviction tier, and the favored direction

Tier-focused views allow zooming into a single L2 conviction level (/t1 through /t4) and the full L1 tier index is available via /l1all.

Design principles

• Consistency over discretion: identical scan logic runs every week on every instrument.
• Transparency over black box: every flagged setup shows its reasoning and scoring breakdown when requested.
• Structural over predictive: conditions are identified, outcomes are not asserted.
• Anchored on recent confirmation: detection prioritises the most recent high-confidence read rather than averaging across a window.
• Honesty about limits: misreads and edge cases exist, refinement is ongoing.
• Layer separation: L1 (yearly cycle score) and L2 (quarterly and monthly structure) are computed independently. An instrument can fail one and still produce a meaningful read from the other.

Roadmap

Continuous refinement

Threshold calibration, edge-case handling, and detection quality are tuned weekly as more scans accumulate. The current L1 thresholds and the liquidity-tier banding will continue to evolve as live data validates or contradicts current assumptions.

Liquidity scoring depth

The current liquidity-driven structural conviction tier uses a hand-built rule set (asymmetry, distance, source timeframe, cleared-side handling). A successor model will incorporate realised volatility, depth of the remaining stack, and probability-of-hit reasoning so the tier reflects not only static geometry but realistic time-to-target.

Cross-week intelligence

The Friday recap already computes transitions and BTC dominance deltas against the prior week. Future expansion includes mid-week tier-change alerts for the rare structural-divergence subset, multi-week streak tracking, and historical performance views per instrument and per scan.

Web platform, premium edition

Long-term direction: a fully featured web platform as the primary product, with Telegram remaining the streamlined entry tier.

Planned capabilities:

• Unrestricted listing depth (no Telegram render caps)
• Significantly larger instrument universe, potentially re-introducing equities, commodity futures, and index futures under the same framework
• Interactive visualisations (charts, structural overlays, liquidity maps)
• Toggleable analysis layers
• Historical performance views per instrument and per scan
• Account dashboard (preferences, watchlists, scan history)
• Bidirectional analysis (e.g., explicit bull-case detection on top of the current bear-context default)

Subscription and activation

Telegram tier (current): Weekly Friday scan output (intro message, Friday Recap, L1 x L2 Alignment Digest), on-demand Layer 1 and Layer 2 per ticker, tier-focused commands, L1 tier index, market state intro, and user settings.

Pricing:

• Introductory rate: €29 per month, available through 22 June 2026
• Standard rate from 22 June: €108 per month
• Access is permanently capped at 100 subscribers

Existing subscribers approaching the transition will be contacted in advance with continuation options.

Activation flow:

1. Subscribe via Stripe
2. Receive an 8-character activation code by email within seconds of payment (sent from Vigil via the verified send.gainvigil.com domain)
3. Open Telegram, message @VigilMarketBot
4. Send /activate YOUR_CODE to the bot
5. Access is granted instantly, the next Friday broadcast arrives on schedule

Renewals are handled automatically by Stripe. Failed payments trigger a Telegram DM with a 3-day grace window before access pauses. Cancellation preserves access through the end of the current paid period.

Disclaimer

Vigil is educational analysis only, not financial advice. Crypto trading involves substantial risk. Subscribers are responsible for their own trading decisions and risk management.